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Aug 6

Written by: Robert Smith
8/6/2008 2:50 PM  

So I was just thinking, letting my mind wander on the costs of various technologies for getting payloads to space, and my mind drifted to Paul Allen and Elon Musk and I thought 'If I had a billion dollars would I really give some, most or all of it away for Space exploration?"  I thought of Paul Allen and a story I'd heard from someone who used to work for Vulcan.. he told me that once he had to fly out to one of Allen's yachts to do a hardware and software upgrade before the big guy flew in to throw a party. 

"One of Allen's yachts"  That was what triggered it...

So I was just thinking, letting my mind wander on the costs of various technologies for getting payloads to space, and my mind drifted to Paul Allen and Elon Musk and I thought 'If I had a billion dollars would I really give some, most or all of it away for Space exploration?"  I thought of Paul Allen and a story I'd heard from someone who used to work for Vulcan.. he told me that once he had to fly out to one of Allen's yachts to do a hardware and software upgrade before the big guy flew in to throw a party. 

"One of Allen's yachts"  That was what triggered it... I know that Mr. Allen is very good to SETI and other science projects but still, he has yachtS (with a big S)

If I had that man's money... would I also get yachtS?  I can't really say because now that I have more money than I did 20 years ago I do spend it on a number of things that my previous poor personage would consider silly and even sometimes wasteful.  But the transition from poor to not-poor happened over a long period of time (and effort) so it was a slow transition and changes in spending habits came in steps of "needs".

But in doing some fast soul searching I considered that if the money came to me in a big burst when I was still same the person I am right now then I do think that I would be able to give a significant portion of the pile of cash away to a Space investment. 

Here's the thing though.. in continuing the mind game for just a few seconds that knee jerk reaction alters course and I'd not really want to just give it away to just anything... not all Space projects are realistic or in my personal interest area.  So, given only a few seconds I'd want to pick the right projects to invest in ... after all, if I had the whole pile o'dough in my hand now a yacht all of a sudden could seem like a "need" or at least I could find a justifiable reason to consider it one ;-).

But putting that train of thought on hold for a bit.. the reality of "but I don't have a pile of cash" creeps in.  And of course that turns to How COULD I get a big pile of cash in the first place?

Start a Religion?  Too much effort and time required and time is the killer because over time tastes and relative considerations of what is important and what is stupid to spend money on changes.  So no, it has to be a fast gain. 

Like a Lottery.  Hmmm. 

Ok.  I'll win a lottery (excellent business plan, huh?).  Now then,  with the pile being delivered to my trembling hands, would I still want to donate it to the common good? 

Consider that when you have a 401k the money is taken out pre-tax and you don't see in your paycheck... it just helps your long term but you live within the means of the net that you get after all deductions (including your 401k).

Hmmm... so that experience teaches us that if you never really had the pile sitting in front to you looking liquid you don't really miss the amount taken out "for the future".

So what if a Lottery would give you cold cash but a significant portion of the actual full pile was taken out before you got your winnings in your hand?

A Space Lottery where everyone puts in a dollar knowing up front that they would get into their hands a full percentage (say, half) of the kitty and the other half would go to Space investment ("donated" in their name? could it be pre-tax ? would they even have to be taxed on that portion?... Hmmm, lawyer stuff.)

The kitty would of course be based on the total number of tickets sold... the overhead of running the lottery would either come from a skim off of the total top... or, better for perceptions, the overhead would come from the half that is being portioned to the Space project itself.

Now, to the point of "What Space Project"?  In a big enough POV pullback and abstraction it really doesn't matter... anything that might get us closer to Space Travel on a large scale is better than anything that is not related to Space Travel at all.  But Realistically once a person gets the half they will likely want more or at least do more questioning on where he other half is going.

So a lottery that up front chooses a short list of Space Projects - say five that are all a bit divergent - and lets the winner pick the one that gets the money.  Or, better still ... there are two "prize" drawings:  one gives one person the cash percentage and the other picks a person who gets to choose from the set of Space related projects.  Two chances to win, better than one.

Hmmmm.

How many people would be in for a dollar?

And what is the overhead and law of such a lottery? Could the overhead be minimized by pro bono work by lawyers and administrators and engineers who are also dedicated to the cause?  It would have to be very transparent at all times... any possibility of greed on any player would have to be absolutely minimized.

A "Space Lottery", that name has been presented before.  I recall there being a minor flare from the NSS some years back.. yep, here it is: http://www.space.com/adastra/adastra_lottery_060120.html

But that idea was that it would be a "lottery" with all Proud Earth Citizens being eager to jump onboard for the good of humanity ... and it was really a raffle with prizes that weren't all that realistic to folks who knew that they'd not fit the qualifications for personally taking a flight. 

I spent a number of years planning and executing contests and learned early on that if the prize isn't realistic then no one will play.

So I'm thinking more like an office baby-birth drawing, where people in the company are told tha tthey can chip in as many dollars as they want, one "chance to win cash" per buck.  When when the kid is born one name is drawn and that person gets half of the money and the other half is used to buy a single present for the baby. 

It's not a Pool where you have to guess the date and weight, instead it's a fine and classic way to get more money because even people who don't know the woman and how big she's getting or simply don't care still tend to chip in because the potential prize is understandable and immediately useful to them.  Plus, those who do happen to care about the woman tend to pay for more "chances".

But Hmmm... is it worth it?  Well, I get hounded by NSS all the time to give money to projects and they appear to be happy to get anything.  A hundred people in for a dollar, with the winner getting 50 dollars and the other 50 going to Space is still better than nothing at all. 

 

I tell ya, if the NSS or BIS or the Planetary Society or some such group were to try this sort of thing and one of the options to choose from was getting the "other half" of the money to pay for a block of space on the YourNameIntoSpace.com mission (to test out the artificial gravity tethering that NASA continues to avoid like the plague).  I'd be in for a dollar right now... in fact, make it fifty.

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